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V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

34.43%

increased by 1.36%

1 Week

36.01%

increased by 2.94%

1 Month

40.66%

increased by 7.59%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1760
6.27***
αARCH0.1218
7.03***
βGARCH0.8433
45.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0495
4.70***
γ2-0.0667
-4.13***
γ30.0278
2.30**
γ4-0.0076
-0.67
γ5-0.0093
-1.03

0.965

Persistence

20d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1760
6.27***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1218
7.03***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8433
45.66***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ10.0495
4.70***
γ2-0.0667
-4.13***
γ30.0278
2.30**
γ4-0.0076
-0.67
γ5-0.0093
-1.03

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

20 days