V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
34.43%
increased by 1.36%
1 Week
36.01%
increased by 2.94%
1 Month
40.66%
increased by 7.59%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 10:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.1760 | 6.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.1218 | 7.03*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8433 | 45.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0495 | 4.70*** |
| γ2 | -0.0667 | -4.13*** |
| γ3 | 0.0278 | 2.30** |
| γ4 | -0.0076 | -0.67 |
| γ5 | -0.0093 | -1.03 |
0.965
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1760 | 6.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1218 | 7.03*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8433 | 45.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.0495 | 4.70*** |
| γ2 | -0.0667 | -4.13*** |
| γ3 | 0.0278 | 2.30** |
| γ4 | -0.0076 | -0.67 |
| γ5 | -0.0093 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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