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Dow Jones Composite Average AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

15.04%

increased by 5.82%

1 Week

15.10%

increased by 5.88%

1 Month

15.30%

increased by 6.08%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:06 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.62) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0000
0.00
αARCH0.0854
10.46***
βGARCH0.8820
91.62***
γleverage0.6220
9.25***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0000
0.00
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0854
10.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8820
91.62***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6220
9.25***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days