Dow Jones Composite Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026
1 Day
11.38%
decreased by 0.08%
1 Week
11.56%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
12.19%
increased by 0.73%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.95 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.0092 | 2.41** |
| αscore | 0.0861 | 8.58*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9831 | 127.39*** |
| νDF | 7.9455 | 1.41 |
0.983
Persistence41d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.0092 | 2.41** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0861 | 8.58*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9831 | 127.39*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9455 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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