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Dow Jones Composite Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, November 2nd, 2026

1 Day

11.38%

decreased by 0.08%

1 Week

11.56%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

12.19%

increased by 0.73%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 31, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/30/2024

to

10/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 41-day half-lifev = 7.95 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.0092
2.41**
αscore0.0861
8.58***
βpersistence0.9831
127.39***
νDF7.9455
1.41

0.983

Persistence

41d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.0092
2.41**
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0861
8.58***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9831
127.39***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9455
1.41

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days