V-Lab
Dow Jones Composite Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.22%
decreased by 0.48%
1 Week
10.47%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Month
11.29%
increased by 0.59%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0177 | 9.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 34.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9833 | 504.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.9033 | 5.68*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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