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Dow Jones Composite Average GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

10.22%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Week

10.47%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Month

11.29%

increased by 0.59%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0177
9.45***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0865
34.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9833
504.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.9033
5.68***

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days