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V-Lab

Dow Jones Composite Average APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

10.40%

increased by 0.93%

1 Week

10.72%

increased by 1.25%

1 Month

11.79%

increased by 2.32%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Dow Jones Composite Average APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0251
33.04***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0714
28.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9114
468.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8050
23.05***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2559
44.02***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

29 days