Dow Jones Composite Average APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
10.40%
increased by 0.93%
1 Week
10.72%
increased by 1.25%
1 Month
11.79%
increased by 2.32%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.26 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 33.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0714 | 28.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9114 | 468.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.8050 | 23.05*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2559 | 44.02*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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