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Dow Jones Composite Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

10.29%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

10.60%

increased by 0.01%

1 Month

11.54%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/12/2024

to

10/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Composite Average MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0013
0.16
βGARCH0.8531
70.27***
γleverage0.1665
11.05***
λ₁tau intercept0.0322
1.56
λ₂forecast adj.0.1314
1.69*
λ₃tau persistence0.8324
8.46***

0.938

Persistence

11d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0013
0.16
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8531
70.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1665
11.05***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0322
1.56
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1314
1.69*
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8324
8.46***

Persistence:

0.938

Half-life:

11 days