Dow Jones Composite Average MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
10.29%
decreased by 0.30%
1 Week
10.60%
increased by 0.01%
1 Month
11.54%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0013 | 0.16 |
| βGARCH | 0.8531 | 70.27*** |
| γleverage | 0.1665 | 11.05*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0322 | 1.56 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1314 | 1.69* |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8324 | 8.46*** |
0.938
Persistence11d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0013 | 0.16 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8531 | 70.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1665 | 11.05*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0322 | 1.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1314 | 1.69* |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8324 | 8.46*** |
Persistence:
0.938
Half-life:
11 days
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