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FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

20.10%

increased by 0.61%

1 Week

20.20%

increased by 0.71%

1 Month

20.54%

increased by 1.05%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 92 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~92 daysv = 8.13 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5921
1.50
αARCH0.0829
10.59***
βGARCH0.9925
189.04***
νDF8.1346
1.64

0.992

Persistence

92d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5921
1.50
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
10.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9925
189.04***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1346
1.64

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

92 days