V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026
1 Day
14.15%
1 Week
14.38%
1 Month
15.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 04:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.5983 | 1.49 |
| αARCH | 0.0828 | 10.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9926 | 190.88*** |
| νDF | 8.1231 | 1.66* |
0.993
Persistence93d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.5983 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0828 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 190.88*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1231 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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