FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
18.11%
1 Week
18.25%
1 Month
18.76%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 05:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 90 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.6009 | 1.52 |
| αscore | 0.0838 | 10.60*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9924 | 187.59*** |
| νDF | 8.4138 | 1.56 |
0.992
Persistence90d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.6009 | 1.52 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0838 | 10.60*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9924 | 187.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4138 | 1.56 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
90 days
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