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FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 16th, 2026

1 Day

14.15%

decreased by 0.72%

1 Week

14.38%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

15.24%

increased by 0.37%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 04:15 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.993, shock half-life ~93 daysv = 8.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.5983
1.49
αARCH0.0828
10.66***
βGARCH0.9926
190.88***
νDF8.1231
1.66*

0.993

Persistence

93d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.5983
1.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0828
10.66***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9926
190.88***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1231
1.66*

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days