V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
12.68%
decreased by 0.50%
1 Week
12.97%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
14.00%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6011 | 1.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0829 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 190.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1265 | 1.66* |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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