V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
11.82%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
12.14%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
13.28%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.18 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6100 | 5.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0831 | 42.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9926 | 773.66*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.1800 | 6.61*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
93 days
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