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FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

18.10%

decreased by 0.02%

1 Week

18.24%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

18.74%

increased by 0.62%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of FTSE MIB Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, volatility shocks have a half-life of 93 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.14 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6262
5.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0829
42.70***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9926
765.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.1441
6.60***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

93 days