V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.01%
1 Week
17.13%
1 Month
17.54%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:52 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.04 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0267 | 8.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.0839 | 11.11*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9109 | 124.09*** |
| γleverage | 0.7043 | 9.26*** |
| δpower | 1.0403 | 10.36*** |
0.979
Persistence32d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0267 | 8.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0839 | 11.11*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9109 | 124.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7043 | 9.26*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0403 | 10.36*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
32 days
Other S&P MidCap 400 Index Analyses
Other APARCH Analyses on Equity Indices