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V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.71%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Week

12.90%

decreased by 0.34%

1 Month

13.57%

increased by 0.33%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.90 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3654
11.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0886
36.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9866
705.25***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.8998
4.50***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days