Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P MidCap 400 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

13.14%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

13.31%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

13.92%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MidCap 400 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 10.92 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3633
2.77***
αARCH0.0884
9.24***
βGARCH0.9866
176.91***
νDF10.9242
1.12

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3633
2.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0884
9.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9866
176.91***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.9242
1.12

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days