V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
13.14%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
13.31%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Month
13.92%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.92 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 10.92 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3633 | 2.77*** |
| αARCH | 0.0884 | 9.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9866 | 176.91*** |
| νDF | 10.9242 | 1.12 |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3633 | 2.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0884 | 9.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9866 | 176.91*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.9242 | 1.12 |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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