V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.61%
increased by 0.82%
1 Week
15.72%
increased by 0.93%
1 Month
16.13%
increased by 1.34%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 41 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 41 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0233 | 25.51*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1012 | 43.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8822 | 373.48*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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