V-Lab
S&P MidCap 400 Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
13.93%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Week
14.11%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
14.77%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 11:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0073 | 4.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1544 | 45.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9769 | 1,023.97*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1035 | -35.69*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
30 days
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