Dow Jones Utilities Average EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.75%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
14.83%
decreased by 0.15%
1 Month
15.12%
increased by 0.14%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:26 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 80% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0027 | 0.86 |
| αARCH | 0.1673 | 10.84*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9804 | 354.84*** |
| γleverage | -0.0477 | -3.60*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0027 | 0.86 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1673 | 10.84*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9804 | 354.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0477 | -3.60*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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