Dow Jones Utilities Average Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
16.07%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
16.17%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
16.54%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7372 | 9.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0865 | 10.42*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8955 | 103.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -3.20*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7372 | 9.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0865 | 10.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8955 | 103.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0004 | -3.20*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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