FT Wilshire 5000 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.79%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
11.34%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
13.05%
increased by 2.49%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 2, 2026 at 04:39 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 2009 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 28-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0361 | 3.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.2908 | 11.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6847 | 37.20*** |
0.975
Persistence28d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0361 | 3.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2908 | 11.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6847 | 37.20*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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