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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.08%

increased by 1.32%

1 Week

18.41%

increased by 1.65%

1 Month

19.67%

increased by 2.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:30 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 16, 1995 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0238
9.20***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0968
25.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9032
257.84***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-