V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
13.21%
1 Week
13.69%
1 Month
15.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 16, 1995 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0257 | 3.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0601 | 3.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8980 | 58.07*** |
| γleverage | 0.0838 | 1.50 |
1.000
Persistence-
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0257 | 3.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0601 | 3.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8980 | 58.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0838 | 1.50 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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