V-Lab
Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.99%
1 Week
14.46%
1 Month
16.20%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 16, 1995 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 139% more than positive returns
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0264 | 14.62*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0604 | 12.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8977 | 227.22*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0837 | 5.95*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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