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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.05%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

18.36%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

19.53%

increased by 1.19%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 17, 1996 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 25672 trading days (~101.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 34% more than positive returns

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0221
20.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2029
48.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7631
234.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0680
9.30***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

25672 days