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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026

1 Day

15.99%

increased by 0.46%

1 Week

16.07%

increased by 0.54%

1 Month

16.35%

increased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 16, 1995 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 175% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

46
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0533
12.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8652
121.43***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0933
11.95***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0001
0.81
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0048
4.90***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9951
885.30***

Persistence:

0.965

Half-life:

20 days