Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.99%
increased by 0.46%
1 Week
16.07%
increased by 0.54%
1 Month
16.35%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Aug 16, 1995 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 175% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0533 | 12.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8652 | 121.43*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0933 | 11.95*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0001 | 0.81 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0048 | 4.90*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9951 | 885.30*** |
Persistence:
0.965
Half-life:
20 days
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