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V-Lab

Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

14.14%

decreased by 0.73%

1 Week

14.28%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Month

14.79%

decreased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 16, 1995 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 242 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.45 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.4282
5.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0698
79.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9971
2,196.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4490
19.36***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

242 days