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Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

12.46%

increased by 1.13%

1 Week

12.62%

increased by 1.29%

1 Month

13.21%

increased by 1.88%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:54 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Stock Exchange of Thailand SET 50 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Aug 16, 1995 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 245 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~245 daysv = 5.47 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.3586
1.39
αARCH0.0694
19.98***
βGARCH0.9972
554.60***
νDF5.4721
4.79***

0.997

Persistence

245d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.3586
1.39
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0694
19.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9972
554.60***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

5.4721
4.79***

Persistence:

0.997

Half-life:

245 days