V-Lab
Russell 1000 Growth Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
30.69%
increased by 6.45%
1 Week
30.65%
increased by 6.41%
1 Month
30.50%
increased by 6.26%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 12:08 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 131 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.29 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8142 | 4.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 40.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 801.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.2916 | 6.76*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
131 days
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