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Russell 1000 Growth Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

20.42%

decreased by 1.30%

1 Week

20.50%

decreased by 1.22%

1 Month

20.78%

decreased by 0.94%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 1000 Growth Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 12, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.994, shock half-life ~121 daysv = 8.62 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.7159
1.09
αscore0.0976
9.71***
βpersistence0.9943
183.14***
νDF8.6200
1.58

0.994

Persistence

121d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.7159
1.09
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0976
9.71***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9943
183.14***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.6200
1.58

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

121 days