V-Lab
Russell 1000 Growth Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
30.06%
increased by 5.83%
1 Week
30.03%
increased by 5.80%
1 Month
29.89%
increased by 5.66%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 12:05 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 130 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.31 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8036 | 4.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0953 | 40.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9947 | 798.95*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.3119 | 6.73*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
130 days
Other Russell 1000 Growth Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices