Russell 1000 Growth Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
20.42%
1 Week
20.50%
1 Month
20.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 24, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 121 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.62 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.7159 | 1.09 |
| αscore | 0.0976 | 9.71*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9943 | 183.14*** |
| νDF | 8.6200 | 1.58 |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.7159 | 1.09 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0976 | 9.71*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9943 | 183.14*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.6200 | 1.58 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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