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S&P Asia 50 CME GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

21.59%

increased by 1.85%

1 Week

21.63%

increased by 1.89%

1 Month

21.81%

increased by 2.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Asia 50 CME GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 266% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 266% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0235
5.12***
αARCH0.0296
3.38***
βGARCH0.9207
139.76***
γleverage0.0785
4.52***

0.990

Persistence

66d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0235
5.12***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0296
3.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9207
139.76***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0785
4.52***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

66 days