V-Lab
S&P Asia 50 CME GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
40.77%
decreased by 1.39%
1 Week
40.48%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Month
39.37%
decreased by 2.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 263% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0234 | 20.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0293 | 13.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9214 | 548.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0770 | 17.85*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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