V-Lab
S&P Asia 50 CME MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
37.17%
decreased by 1.05%
1 Week
37.75%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Month
39.77%
increased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8389 | 136.77*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1317 | 33.23*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0157 | 2.75*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0697 | 3.65*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9221 | 44.61*** |
Persistence:
0.905
Half-life:
7 days
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