Nikkei Stock Average Volatility Index

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{name} Model Equation

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Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	31
αARCH	0.0000	0.00
βGARCH	0.8348	47.65***
γleverage	0.1340	8.92***
λ₁tau intercept	0.0160	2.78***
λ₂forecast adj.	0.0760	4.23***
λ₃tau persistence	0.9163	48.28***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	31
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.0000	0.00
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.8348	47.65***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	0.1340	8.92***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	0.0160	2.78***
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.0760	4.23***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.9163	48.28***

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S&P Asia 50 CME MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Volatility Forecast

Parameter Estimates

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