Skip to main content
V-Lab

S&P Asia 50 CME MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

39.75%

increased by 0.72%

1 Week

39.40%

increased by 0.37%

1 Month

37.94%

decreased by 1.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Asia 50 CME MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8389
136.77***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1317
33.23***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0157
2.75***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0697
3.65***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9221
44.61***

Persistence:

0.905

Half-life:

7 days