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V-Lab

Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

20.80%

increased by 0.23%

1 Week

22.31%

increased by 1.74%

1 Month

25.79%

increased by 5.22%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.3837
2.41**
αARCH0.2233
8.95***
βGARCH0.7060
30.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.1996
-4.10***
γ20.2514
3.93***
γ3-0.0696
-2.38**
γ40.0464
1.78*
γ5-0.0373
-1.63
γ60.0040
0.24

0.929

Persistence

9d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3837
2.41**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2233
8.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7060
30.87***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.1996
-4.10***
γ20.2514
3.93***
γ3-0.0696
-2.38**
γ40.0464
1.78*
γ5-0.0373
-1.63
γ60.0040
0.24

Persistence:

0.929

Half-life:

9 days