V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.80%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
22.31%
increased by 1.74%
1 Month
25.79%
increased by 5.22%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.3837 | 2.41** |
| αARCH | 0.2233 | 8.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7060 | 30.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1996 | -4.10*** |
| γ2 | 0.2514 | 3.93*** |
| γ3 | -0.0696 | -2.38** |
| γ4 | 0.0464 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -0.0373 | -1.63 |
| γ6 | 0.0040 | 0.24 |
0.929
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3837 | 2.41** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2233 | 8.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7060 | 30.87*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.1996 | -4.10*** |
| γ2 | 0.2514 | 3.93*** |
| γ3 | -0.0696 | -2.38** |
| γ4 | 0.0464 | 1.78* |
| γ5 | -0.0373 | -1.63 |
| γ6 | 0.0040 | 0.24 |
Persistence:
0.929
Half-life:
9 days
Other Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index Analyses
Other Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices