V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
20.21%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
20.86%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
23.00%
increased by 1.90%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 144% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 144% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0869 | 7.91*** |
| αARCH | 0.1077 | 5.61*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7946 | 58.19*** |
| γleverage | 0.1552 | 4.00*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0869 | 7.91*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1077 | 5.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7946 | 58.19*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1552 | 4.00*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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