V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
48.18%
decreased by 3.99%
1 Week
50.86%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Month
54.46%
increased by 2.29%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0563 | 9.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6080 | 74.08*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3327 | 32.06*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0182 | 5.49*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0567 | 8.32*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9383 | 122.86*** |
Persistence:
0.831
Half-life:
4 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices