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V-Lab

Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

48.18%

decreased by 3.99%

1 Week

50.86%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Month

54.46%

increased by 2.29%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0563
9.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6080
74.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3327
32.06***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0182
5.49***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0567
8.32***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9383
122.86***

Persistence:

0.831

Half-life:

4 days