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V-Lab

Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

30.74%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

34.40%

increased by 2.85%

1 Month

38.34%

increased by 6.79%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow21
αARCH0.0571
2.65***
βGARCH0.6112
22.44***
γleverage0.3303
8.51***
λ₁tau intercept0.0185
2.42**
λ₂forecast adj.0.0550
4.83***
λ₃tau persistence0.9395
70.40***

0.833

Persistence

4d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0571
2.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6112
22.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3303
8.51***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0185
2.42**
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0550
4.83***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9395
70.40***

Persistence:

0.833

Half-life:

4 days