V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
30.74%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
34.40%
increased by 2.85%
1 Month
38.34%
increased by 6.79%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.0571 | 2.65*** |
| βGARCH | 0.6112 | 22.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.3303 | 8.51*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0185 | 2.42** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0550 | 4.83*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9395 | 70.40*** |
0.833
Persistence4d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0571 | 2.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6112 | 22.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3303 | 8.51*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0185 | 2.42** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0550 | 4.83*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9395 | 70.40*** |
Persistence:
0.833
Half-life:
4 days
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