S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
11.52%
increased by 0.42%
1 Week
11.68%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
12.26%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.41 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2680 | 7.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0846 | 40.35*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9901 | 659.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.4134 | 5.94*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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