Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
8.95%
decreased by 0.86%
1 Week
9.23%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
10.27%
increased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 05:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Jul 16, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 15.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1954 | 49.09*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8046 | 267.58*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
-
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