V-Lab
Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026
1 Day
11.65%
1 Week
11.73%
1 Month
12.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 412 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8967 | 2.46** |
| αARCH | 0.1304 | 25.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9983 | 1,501.23*** |
| νDF | 4.5458 | 13.67*** |
0.998
Persistence412d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8967 | 2.46** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1304 | 25.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 1,501.23*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5458 | 13.67*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
412 days
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