Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 1st, 2026

1 Day

11.65%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Week

11.73%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

12.07%

increased by 0.12%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 412 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.55 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~412 daysv = 4.55 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8967
2.46**
αARCH0.1304
25.30***
βGARCH0.9983
1,501.23***
νDF4.5458
13.67***

0.998

Persistence

412d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8967
2.46**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1304
25.30***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9983
1,501.23***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5458
13.67***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

412 days