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V-Lab
V-Lab

Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026

1 Day

9.96%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

10.06%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

10.47%

increased by 0.31%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 28, 2013 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 411 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~411 daysv = 4.53 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.8752
2.45**
αARCH0.1305
25.36***
βGARCH0.9983
1,490.02***
νDF4.5321
13.80***

0.998

Persistence

411d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.8752
2.45**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1305
25.36***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9983
1,490.02***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.5321
13.80***

Persistence:

0.998

Half-life:

411 days