Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, October 25th, 2026
1 Day
7.19%
1 Week
7.37%
1 Month
8.04%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Oct 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, volatility shocks have a half-life of 248 trading days (~1.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 9.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.2889 | 2.15** |
| αscore | 0.1686 | 13.99*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9972 | 818.72*** |
| νDF | 9.2156 | 2.33** |
0.997
Persistence248d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.2889 | 2.15** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1686 | 13.99*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9972 | 818.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 9.2156 | 2.33** |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
248 days
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