V-Lab
Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Sunday, September 13th, 2026
1 Day
9.96%
1 Week
10.06%
1 Month
10.47%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 05:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 28, 2013 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, volatility shocks have a half-life of 411 trading days (~1.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.53 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.8752 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.1305 | 25.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9983 | 1,490.02*** |
| νDF | 4.5321 | 13.80*** |
0.998
Persistence411d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.8752 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1305 | 25.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9983 | 1,490.02*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.5321 | 13.80*** |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
411 days
Other Bangladesh Dhaka Stock Exchange Broad Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices