V-Lab
FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
33.39%
decreased by 1.38%
1 Week
33.23%
decreased by 1.54%
1 Month
32.59%
decreased by 2.18%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Jun 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6519 | 5.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0492 | 29.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9920 | 704.56*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0943 | 5.75*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
86 days
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