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V-Lab

FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

33.39%

decreased by 1.38%

1 Week

33.23%

decreased by 1.54%

1 Month

32.59%

decreased by 2.18%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2003 to Jun 18, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 86 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.6519
5.31***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0492
29.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9920
704.56***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.0943
5.75***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

86 days