FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
22.07%
1 Week
22.05%
1 Month
21.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 15, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 1.7125 | 1.33 |
| αscore | 0.0522 | 7.69*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9919 | 170.72*** |
| νDF | 6.6581 | 1.22 |
0.992
Persistence85d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 1.7125 | 1.33 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0522 | 7.69*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9919 | 170.72*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.6581 | 1.22 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
85 days
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