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FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026

1 Day

22.07%

increased by 0.81%

1 Week

22.05%

increased by 0.79%

1 Month

21.97%

increased by 0.71%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 23, 2026 at 08:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/22/2024

to

10/22/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE TWSE Taiwan 50 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 15, 2003 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 85 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.66 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~85 daysv = 6.66 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.7125
1.33
αscore0.0522
7.69***
βpersistence0.9919
170.72***
νDF6.6581
1.22

0.992

Persistence

85d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.7125
1.33
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0522
7.69***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9919
170.72***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.6581
1.22

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

85 days