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V-Lab

S&P 500 Growth Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

23.36%

decreased by 0.83%

1 Week

23.26%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

22.89%

decreased by 1.30%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P 500 Growth Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 29, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0262
31.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0836
24.24***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9060
389.35***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.7553
15.20***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.2489
43.85***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days