V-Lab
S&P 500 Growth Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
23.36%
decreased by 0.83%
1 Week
23.26%
decreased by 0.93%
1 Month
22.89%
decreased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 29, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.25 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0262 | 31.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0836 | 24.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9060 | 389.35*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.7553 | 15.20*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2489 | 43.85*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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