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V-Lab

S&P 500 Growth Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

24.74%

decreased by 2.30%

1 Week

23.32%

decreased by 3.72%

1 Month

19.33%

decreased by 7.71%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Growth Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 7, 1993 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 78% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.02 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0307
39.51***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1937
64.17***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7942
267.51***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2745
31.05***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.0244
32.16***

Persistence:

0.949

Half-life:

13 days