V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
14.24%
decreased by 0.78%
1 Week
14.96%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
17.30%
increased by 2.28%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 38 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 38 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 38-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0576 | 8.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.1872 | 13.19*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7945 | 61.09*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0576 | 8.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1872 | 13.19*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7945 | 61.09*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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