V-Lab
MSCI NUAM Peru General Index Gross AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
14.16%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Week
14.95%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Month
17.48%
increased by 2.40%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.11) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0581 | 8.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1914 | 13.63*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7914 | 61.89*** |
| γleverage | 0.1057 | 2.69*** |
0.983
Persistence40d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0581 | 8.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1914 | 13.63*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7914 | 61.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1057 | 2.69*** |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
40 days
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