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Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

5.94%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Week

5.94%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

5.93%

decreased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0115
1.66*
αARCH0.0573
3.26***
βGARCH0.8731
18.68***
γleverage0.0581
0.59
δpower1.8613
4.89***

0.928

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0115
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0573
3.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8731
18.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0581
0.59
δ

power

Transformation power

1.8613
4.89***

Persistence:

0.928

Half-life:

9 days