Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
5.94%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Week
5.94%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
5.93%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
APARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0115 | 1.66* |
| αARCH | 0.0573 | 3.26*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8731 | 18.68*** |
| γleverage | 0.0581 | 0.59 |
| δpower | 1.8613 | 4.89*** |
0.928
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
APARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0115 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8731 | 18.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0581 | 0.59 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.8613 | 4.89*** |
Persistence:
0.928
Half-life:
9 days
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