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V-Lab

Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

85.19%

increased by 7.09%

1 Week

85.82%

increased by 7.72%

1 Month

88.22%

increased by 10.12%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2010 to Apr 30, 2026

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

74.9868
5.52***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0462
80.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9953
1,239.53***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0012

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

149 days