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Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

35.49%

decreased by 0.07%

1 Week

35.90%

increased by 0.34%

1 Month

37.43%

increased by 1.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/24/2024

to

09/24/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2010 to Sep 24, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst15.2404
1.19
αARCH0.0445
19.96***
βGARCH0.9943
208.58***
νDF2.0050
2,761.66***

0.994

Persistence

121d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

15.2404
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0445
19.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9943
208.58***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0050
2,761.66***

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

121 days