V-Lab
Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
35.49%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
35.90%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
37.43%
increased by 1.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Sep 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 15.2404 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.0445 | 19.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9943 | 208.58*** |
| νDF | 2.0050 | 2,761.66*** |
0.994
Persistence121d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 15.2404 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0445 | 19.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9943 | 208.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0050 | 2,761.66*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
121 days
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