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Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

45.84%

decreased by 2.29%

1 Week

46.53%

decreased by 1.60%

1 Month

49.04%

increased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 15, 2026
Extended Optimization
Convergence Warning

Model Insight

The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run23.3712
0.92
αscore0.0425
16.17***
βpersistence0.9899
82.96***
νDF2.0033
1,911.53***

0.990

Persistence

68d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

23.3712
0.92
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0425
16.17***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9899
82.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.0033
1,911.53***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

68 days