Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
45.84%
decreased by 2.29%
1 Week
46.53%
decreased by 1.60%
1 Month
49.04%
increased by 0.91%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:35 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 15, 2026Extended Optimization
Convergence Warning
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 23.3712 | 0.92 |
| αscore | 0.0425 | 16.17*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9899 | 82.96*** |
| νDF | 2.0033 | 1,911.53*** |
0.990
Persistence68d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 23.3712 | 0.92 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0425 | 16.17*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9899 | 82.96*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0033 | 1,911.53*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
68 days
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