V-Lab
Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
5.25%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
5.32%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
5.46%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 3-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0527 | 2.05** |
| βGARCH | 0.7067 | 6.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0256 | 0.80 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0592 | 0.56 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.2887 | 0.52 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.2355 | 0.17 |
0.772
Persistence3d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0527 | 2.05** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7067 | 6.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0256 | 0.80 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0592 | 0.56 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.2887 | 0.52 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.2355 | 0.17 |
Persistence:
0.772
Half-life:
3 days
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