Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
6.00%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
5.97%
decreased by 0.22%
1 Month
5.91%
decreased by 0.28%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0101 | 2.12** |
| αARCH | 0.0479 | 2.60*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8709 | 18.72*** |
| γleverage | 0.0133 | 0.33 |
0.925
Persistence9d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0101 | 2.12** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0479 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8709 | 18.72*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0133 | 0.33 |
Persistence:
0.925
Half-life:
9 days
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