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Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

6.00%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

5.97%

decreased by 0.22%

1 Month

5.91%

decreased by 0.28%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 9 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 9 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 9-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0101
2.12**
αARCH0.0479
2.60***
βGARCH0.8709
18.72***
γleverage0.0133
0.33

0.925

Persistence

9d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0101
2.12**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0479
2.60***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8709
18.72***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0133
0.33

Persistence:

0.925

Half-life:

9 days