V-Lab
Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
6.52%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
6.42%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
6.17%
decreased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0112 | 2.26** |
| αARCH | 0.0517 | 2.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8574 | 17.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0158 | 0.36 |
0.917
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0112 | 2.26** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0517 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8574 | 17.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0158 | 0.36 |
Persistence:
0.917
Half-life:
8 days
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