Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
5.57%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
5.57%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
5.58%
decreased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0049 | 2.22** |
| αARCH | 0.0362 | 2.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9243 | 42.51*** |
0.960
Persistence17d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0049 | 2.22** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0362 | 2.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9243 | 42.51*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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