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V-Lab

Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

5.57%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

5.57%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

5.58%

decreased by 0.09%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2010 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 17-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0049
2.22**
αARCH0.0362
2.92***
βGARCH0.9243
42.51***

0.960

Persistence

17d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0049
2.22**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0362
2.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9243
42.51***

Persistence:

0.960

Half-life:

17 days