Sarajevo Stock Exchange Index 30 Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
5.08%
increased by 0.09%
1 Week
5.12%
increased by 0.13%
1 Month
5.25%
increased by 0.26%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2010 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0054 | 11.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0433 | 10.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9166 | 157.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0067 | -0.95 |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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