V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
18.08%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Week
18.52%
decreased by 0.16%
1 Month
20.05%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 30, 1999 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0506 | 2.08** |
| αARCH | 0.2357 | 12.59*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7504 | 59.94*** |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0506 | 2.08** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2357 | 12.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7504 | 59.94*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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