Borsa Istanbul 100 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
20.94%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
21.85%
decreased by 0.36%
1 Month
24.45%
increased by 2.24%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 03:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 31, 2001 to Jul 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 17 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 17 days.
μ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1497 | 10.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2654 | 37.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6947 | 160.06*** |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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