Skip to main content
V-Lab

Borsa Istanbul 100 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

22.42%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

23.14%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Month

25.76%

increased by 2.53%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0624
24.05***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0958
41.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9000
379.89***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3478
9.24***

Persistence:

0.996

Half-life:

163 days