V-Lab
Borsa Istanbul 100 Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
22.42%
decreased by 0.81%
1 Week
23.14%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Month
25.76%
increased by 2.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 163 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0624 | 24.05*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0958 | 41.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9000 | 379.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3478 | 9.24*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
163 days
Other AGARCH Analyses on Equity Indices