V-Lab
Borsa Istanbul 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
21.63%
decreased by 0.72%
1 Week
22.55%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
24.44%
increased by 2.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 162% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0567 | 13.39*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7927 | 137.62*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0916 | 15.07*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0009 | 0.85 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0055 | 3.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9942 | 500.12*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
Other MF2-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices