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V-Lab

Borsa Istanbul 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026

1 Day

20.64%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Week

21.76%

increased by 0.63%

1 Month

24.00%

increased by 2.87%

Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Borsa Istanbul 100 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 162% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0566
13.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7928
137.66***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0917
15.09***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0009
0.85
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0055
3.31***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9942
499.62***

Persistence:

0.895

Half-life:

6 days