V-Lab
Borsa Istanbul 100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
20.64%
decreased by 0.49%
1 Week
21.76%
increased by 0.63%
1 Month
24.00%
increased by 2.87%
Analysis last updated: Monday, August 24, 2026 at 03:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 162% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0566 | 13.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7928 | 137.66*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0917 | 15.09*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0009 | 0.85 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0055 | 3.31*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9942 | 499.62*** |
Persistence:
0.895
Half-life:
6 days
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