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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026

1 Day

25.57%

increased by 3.84%

1 Week

24.75%

increased by 3.02%

1 Month

23.40%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 3, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0124
5.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8120
139.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1642
34.81***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0091
5.68***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0418
6.69***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9541
147.67***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days