V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
16.58%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
17.54%
increased by 0.64%
1 Month
19.68%
increased by 2.78%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0118 | 5.07*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8126 | 139.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1640 | 34.90*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0091 | 5.62*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0418 | 6.66*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9542 | 147.18*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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