Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 9th, 2026
1 Day
25.57%
increased by 3.84%
1 Week
24.75%
increased by 3.02%
1 Month
23.40%
increased by 1.67%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 10:41 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0124 | 5.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8120 | 139.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1642 | 34.81*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0091 | 5.68*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0418 | 6.69*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9541 | 147.67*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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