V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
17.12%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
17.97%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
19.59%
increased by 2.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0115 | 4.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8126 | 139.83*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1644 | 34.98*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0092 | 5.60*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0419 | 6.64*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9540 | 146.39*** |
Persistence:
0.906
Half-life:
7 days
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