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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

16.58%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

17.54%

increased by 0.64%

1 Month

19.68%

increased by 2.78%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0118
5.07***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8126
139.81***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1640
34.90***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0091
5.62***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0418
6.66***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9542
147.18***

Persistence:

0.906

Half-life:

7 days