Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.79%
increased by 0.29%
1 Week
17.08%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
18.14%
increased by 1.64%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0288 | 5.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1017 | 12.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8901 | 110.85*** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0288 | 5.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1017 | 12.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8901 | 110.85*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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