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Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.79%

increased by 0.29%

1 Week

17.08%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

18.14%

increased by 1.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 07:58 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0288
5.36***
αARCH0.1017
12.48***
βGARCH0.8901
110.85***

0.992

Persistence

84d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0288
5.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1017
12.48***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8901
110.85***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days