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Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026

1 Day

16.53%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Week

16.89%

decreased by 0.30%

1 Month

18.16%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Monday, October 5, 2026 at 07:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/05/2024

to

10/05/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 134% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.62 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 134% more than positive returnsδ = 1.62 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0341
6.75***
αARCH0.1033
10.73***
βGARCH0.8913
105.17***
γleverage0.2558
4.39***
δpower1.6244
8.58***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0341
6.75***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1033
10.73***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8913
105.17***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2558
4.39***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6244
8.58***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days