Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
19.27%
decreased by 0.89%
1 Week
19.53%
decreased by 0.63%
1 Month
20.46%
increased by 0.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0342 | 26.96*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1045 | 43.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8905 | 418.10*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2535 | 17.51*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.6136 | 34.22*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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