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V-Lab

Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026

1 Day

19.27%

decreased by 0.89%

1 Week

19.53%

decreased by 0.63%

1 Month

20.46%

increased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:38 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 131% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.61 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0342
26.96***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1045
43.34***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8905
418.10***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.2535
17.51***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.6136
34.22***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days