Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, November 12th, 2026
1 Day
19.65%
increased by 0.49%
1 Week
19.87%
increased by 0.71%
1 Month
20.66%
increased by 1.50%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 11, 2026 at 08:57 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Nov 6, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0368 | 5.98*** |
| αARCH | 0.0573 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8872 | 108.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.0859 | 3.51*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0368 | 5.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8872 | 108.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0859 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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