V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 10th, 2026
1 Day
15.99%
increased by 0.70%
1 Week
16.36%
increased by 1.07%
1 Month
17.67%
increased by 2.38%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0369 | 5.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0576 | 4.52*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8867 | 108.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0864 | 3.51*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0369 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0576 | 4.52*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8867 | 108.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0864 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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