Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 23rd, 2026
1 Day
15.28%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Week
15.69%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Month
17.09%
increased by 1.23%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 22, 2026 at 08:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 150% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 150% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0367 | 5.97*** |
| αARCH | 0.0573 | 4.51*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8872 | 108.91*** |
| γleverage | 0.0860 | 3.51*** |
0.987
Persistence55d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0367 | 5.97*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0573 | 4.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8872 | 108.91*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0860 | 3.51*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
55 days
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