Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, July 22nd, 2026
1 Day
16.96%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
17.38%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
18.85%
increased by 1.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6544 | 6.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1037 | 12.20*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8812 | 101.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0035 | 3.27*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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