V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
16.57%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
17.01%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Month
18.51%
increased by 1.25%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 07:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6434 | 6.95*** |
| αARCH | 0.1029 | 12.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8820 | 102.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0034 | 3.24*** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6434 | 6.95*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1029 | 12.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8820 | 102.13*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0034 | 3.24*** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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