V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
17.72%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
17.98%
decreased by 0.58%
1 Month
18.91%
increased by 0.35%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 30, 2026 at 07:53 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.99 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0577 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0949 | 41.78*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9936 | 1,051.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.9945 | 5.23*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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