V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
14.45%
1 Week
14.80%
1 Month
16.07%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 08:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 107 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.94 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.9813 | 1.77* |
| αARCH | 0.0941 | 10.44*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9935 | 260.63*** |
| νDF | 10.9379 | 1.31 |
0.994
Persistence107d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9813 | 1.77* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0941 | 10.44*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9935 | 260.63*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.9379 | 1.31 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
107 days
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