V-Lab
Deutsche Borse TecDAX Total Return Selection Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026
1 Day
17.93%
decreased by 1.04%
1 Week
18.17%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Month
19.09%
increased by 0.12%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, volatility shocks have a half-life of 108 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.95 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.0568 | 7.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0945 | 41.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9936 | 1,052.54*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.9509 | 5.26*** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
108 days
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