V-Lab
MSCI Chile GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
18.56%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
18.67%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
19.05%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0214 | 6.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0780 | 6.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8807 | 113.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0627 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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