MSCI Chile GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
29.02%
increased by 0.52%
1 Week
28.92%
increased by 0.42%
1 Month
28.56%
increased by 0.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 29, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 72 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 81% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~72 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 81% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0210 | 6.79*** |
| αARCH | 0.0769 | 6.79*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8822 | 114.69*** |
| γleverage | 0.0626 | 2.74*** |
0.990
Persistence72d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0210 | 6.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0769 | 6.79*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8822 | 114.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0626 | 2.74*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
72 days
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