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V-Lab

MSCI Chile GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026

1 Day

26.46%

decreased by 1.61%

1 Week

26.40%

decreased by 1.67%

1 Month

26.18%

decreased by 1.89%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of MSCI Chile GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0212
6.83***
αARCH0.0775
6.81***
βGARCH0.8814
113.98***
γleverage0.0623
2.72***

0.990

Persistence

70d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0212
6.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0775
6.81***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8814
113.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0623
2.72***

Persistence:

0.990

Half-life:

70 days