MSCI Chile GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
26.46%
decreased by 1.61%
1 Week
26.40%
decreased by 1.67%
1 Month
26.18%
decreased by 1.89%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:29 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 70 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~70 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0212 | 6.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.0775 | 6.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8814 | 113.98*** |
| γleverage | 0.0623 | 2.72*** |
0.990
Persistence70d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 6.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0775 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8814 | 113.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0623 | 2.72*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
70 days
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