V-Lab
MSCI Chile GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
18.14%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
18.26%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
18.67%
decreased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.990, volatility shocks have a half-life of 69 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
High persistence: persistence 0.990, shock half-life ~69 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 80% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0212 | 6.84*** |
| αARCH | 0.0776 | 6.81*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8813 | 113.79*** |
| γleverage | 0.0623 | 2.71*** |
0.990
Persistence69d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 6.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0776 | 6.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8813 | 113.79*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0623 | 2.71*** |
Persistence:
0.990
Half-life:
69 days
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