MSCI Chile EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
23.92%
increased by 2.20%
1 Week
23.84%
increased by 2.12%
1 Month
23.55%
increased by 1.83%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 1, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 46% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 46% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0126 | 4.31*** |
| αARCH | 0.2052 | 14.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9802 | 334.55*** |
| γleverage | -0.0384 | -3.16*** |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0126 | 4.31*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2052 | 14.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9802 | 334.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0384 | -3.16*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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